Gameweek 24
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-06 15:00 | ARS vs LIV | 51.1% | 25.6% | 23.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | BHA vs HUL | 68.1% | 17.6% | 14.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | CRY vs COV | 56.6% | 22.3% | 21.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | EVE vs NEW | 33.9% | 25.9% | 40.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | FUL vs MCI | 23.3% | 21.9% | 54.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | IPS vs TOT | 31.8% | 23.0% | 45.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | LEE vs BOU | 41.2% | 24.8% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | MUN vs CHE | 35.5% | 23.1% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | NFO vs BRE | 37.5% | 26.3% | 36.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 15:00 | SUN vs AVL | 29.1% | 24.2% | 46.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.