CRY vs COV
Crystal Palace (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 56.6% fair 1.77
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
COV win 21.2% fair 4.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.5% / 22.0% / 19.5%.
Expected Goals
CRY
1.91
—
1.01
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 COV | 10.4% | |
| CRY 1-0 COV | 10.3% | |
| CRY 2-1 COV | 9.9% | |
| CRY 2-0 COV | 9.9% | |
| CRY 3-1 COV | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).