FUL vs MCI
Fulham (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 23.3% fair 4.29
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
MCI win 54.8% fair 1.83
Expected Goals
FUL
1.12
—
1.97
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 MCI | 10.1% | |
| FUL 1-2 MCI | 9.9% | |
| FUL 0-1 MCI | 9.0% | |
| FUL 0-2 MCI | 8.9% | |
| FUL 1-3 MCI | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).