MUN vs CHE
Manchester United (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 35.5% fair 2.81
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
CHE win 41.4% fair 2.42
Expected Goals
MUN
1.54
—
1.74
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.3% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 CHE | 10.1% | |
| MUN 1-2 CHE | 8.8% | |
| MUN 2-1 CHE | 7.8% | |
| MUN 2-2 CHE | 6.8% | |
| MUN 0-1 CHE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).