NFO vs BRE
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 37.5% fair 2.67
Draw 26.3% fair 3.80
BRE win 36.2% fair 2.76
Expected Goals
NFO
1.28
—
1.29
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 BRE | 12.6% | |
| NFO 0-1 BRE | 9.9% | |
| NFO 1-0 BRE | 9.8% | |
| NFO 1-2 BRE | 8.1% | |
| NFO 2-1 BRE | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).