IPS vs TOT
Ipswich Town (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 31.8% fair 3.15
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
TOT win 45.2% fair 2.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.2% / 22.8% / 47.9%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.38
—
1.82
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 TOT | 10.2% | |
| IPS 1-2 TOT | 9.3% | |
| IPS 0-1 TOT | 7.4% | |
| IPS 2-1 TOT | 7.1% | |
| IPS 0-2 TOT | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).