Gameweek 25
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-10 20:00 | AVL vs BOU | 49.3% | 22.8% | 27.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | COV vs LIV | 17.6% | 19.8% | 62.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | CRY vs BRE | 38.5% | 24.4% | 37.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | EVE vs LEE | 40.3% | 27.4% | 32.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | FUL vs NFO | 42.3% | 27.3% | 30.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | HUL vs SUN | 40.1% | 26.3% | 33.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | IPS vs ARS | 15.5% | 18.8% | 65.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | MUN vs BHA | 32.7% | 22.8% | 44.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | NEW vs CHE | 41.6% | 23.0% | 35.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-10 20:00 | TOT vs MCI | 27.5% | 21.6% | 50.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.