TOT vs MCI
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 27.5% fair 3.63
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
MCI win 50.9% fair 1.97
Expected Goals
TOT
1.37
—
2.05
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.5% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-2 MCI | 9.4% | |
| TOT 1-1 MCI | 9.2% | |
| TOT 0-2 MCI | 6.8% | |
| TOT 0-1 MCI | 6.7% | |
| TOT 2-2 MCI | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).