NEW vs CHE
Newcastle United (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 41.6% fair 2.40
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
CHE win 35.4% fair 2.83
Expected Goals
NEW
1.72
—
1.59
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 CHE | 9.9% | |
| NEW 2-1 CHE | 8.6% | |
| NEW 1-2 CHE | 7.9% | |
| NEW 2-2 CHE | 6.8% | |
| NEW 1-0 CHE | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).