MUN vs BHA
Manchester United (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 32.7% fair 3.06
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
BHA win 44.5% fair 2.25
Expected Goals
MUN
1.47
—
1.83
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 BHA | 9.9% | |
| MUN 1-2 BHA | 9.1% | |
| MUN 2-1 BHA | 7.3% | |
| MUN 0-1 BHA | 6.8% | |
| MUN 2-2 BHA | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).