CRY vs BRE
Crystal Palace (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 38.5% fair 2.60
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
BRE win 37.1% fair 2.69
Expected Goals
CRY
1.48
—
1.48
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 BRE | 11.3% | |
| CRY 1-2 BRE | 8.4% | |
| CRY 2-1 BRE | 8.4% | |
| CRY 0-1 BRE | 7.6% | |
| CRY 1-0 BRE | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).