AVL vs BOU
Aston Villa (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 49.3% fair 2.03
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
BOU win 27.8% fair 3.59
Expected Goals
AVL
1.85
—
1.32
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.6% | fair 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 BOU | 10.3% | |
| AVL 2-1 BOU | 9.5% | |
| AVL 1-0 BOU | 7.8% | |
| AVL 2-0 BOU | 7.2% | |
| AVL 1-2 BOU | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).