COV vs LIV
Coventry City (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 17.6% fair 5.68
Draw 19.8% fair 5.05
LIV win 62.6% fair 1.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 13.3% / 19.1% / 67.5%.
Expected Goals
COV
0.83
—
2.14
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.8% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 0-2 LIV | 11.7% | |
| COV 0-1 LIV | 10.9% | |
| COV 1-2 LIV | 9.8% | |
| COV 1-1 LIV | 9.1% | |
| COV 0-3 LIV | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).