HUL vs SUN
Hull City (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 40.1% fair 2.49
Draw 26.3% fair 3.80
SUN win 33.5% fair 2.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.1% / 26.8% / 34.0%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.32
—
1.21
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 SUN | 12.7% | |
| HUL 1-0 SUN | 10.5% | |
| HUL 0-1 SUN | 9.7% | |
| HUL 2-1 SUN | 8.4% | |
| HUL 0-0 SUN | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).