IPS vs ARS
Ipswich Town (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 15.5% fair 6.43
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
ARS win 65.6% fair 1.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 11.2% / 18.1% / 70.8%.
Expected Goals
IPS
0.74
—
2.20
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 0-2 ARS | 12.7% | |
| IPS 0-1 ARS | 11.6% | |
| IPS 1-2 ARS | 9.5% | |
| IPS 0-3 ARS | 9.4% | |
| IPS 1-1 ARS | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).