Gameweek 26
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-20 15:00 | BOU vs CRY | 48.3% | 23.2% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | ARS vs FUL | 68.4% | 19.4% | 12.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | BRE vs COV | 62.0% | 20.2% | 17.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | BHA vs TOT | 55.8% | 20.7% | 23.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | CHE vs IPS | 65.7% | 17.8% | 16.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | LEE vs AVL | 36.5% | 25.4% | 38.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | LIV vs HUL | 69.9% | 17.7% | 12.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | MCI vs NEW | 60.2% | 19.8% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | NFO vs MUN | 39.6% | 26.3% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 15:00 | SUN vs EVE | 36.0% | 27.1% | 36.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.