ARS vs FUL
Arsenal (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 68.4% fair 1.46
Draw 19.4% fair 5.16
FUL win 12.2% fair 8.18
Expected Goals
ARS
2.07
—
0.65
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 FUL | 14.1% | |
| ARS 1-0 FUL | 13.7% | |
| ARS 3-0 FUL | 9.7% | |
| ARS 2-1 FUL | 9.2% | |
| ARS 1-1 FUL | 8.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).