Gameweek 27
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-27 15:00 | AVL vs CHE | 40.7% | 23.3% | 36.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | COV vs BOU | 28.5% | 23.2% | 48.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | CRY vs SUN | 50.7% | 23.9% | 25.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | EVE vs NFO | 40.7% | 28.5% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | FUL vs LEE | 41.9% | 26.4% | 31.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | HUL vs MCI | 17.6% | 18.8% | 63.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | IPS vs BHA | 23.8% | 20.4% | 55.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | MUN vs ARS | 20.8% | 22.9% | 56.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | NEW vs BRE | 48.1% | 23.2% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 15:00 | TOT vs LIV | 30.0% | 23.8% | 46.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.