CRY vs SUN
Crystal Palace (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 50.7% fair 1.97
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
SUN win 25.4% fair 3.94
Expected Goals
CRY
1.71
—
1.11
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 SUN | 11.3% | |
| CRY 1-0 SUN | 10.2% | |
| CRY 2-1 SUN | 9.7% | |
| CRY 2-0 SUN | 8.7% | |
| CRY 0-1 SUN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).