EVE vs NFO
Everton (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 40.7% fair 2.46
Draw 28.5% fair 3.51
NFO win 30.9% fair 3.24
Expected Goals
EVE
1.19
—
1.01
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.6% | fair 2.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 NFO | 13.3% | |
| EVE 1-0 NFO | 13.3% | |
| EVE 0-1 NFO | 11.2% | |
| EVE 0-0 NFO | 11.1% | |
| EVE 2-1 NFO | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).