Gameweek 28
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-03 20:00 | BOU vs TOT | 43.0% | 23.1% | 33.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | ARS vs CRY | 70.4% | 18.0% | 11.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | BRE vs IPS | 57.9% | 21.0% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | BHA vs FUL | 59.3% | 20.9% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | CHE vs COV | 69.4% | 16.8% | 13.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | LEE vs HUL | 52.5% | 24.6% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | LIV vs AVL | 55.5% | 22.5% | 21.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | MCI vs EVE | 66.8% | 18.8% | 14.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | NFO vs NEW | 34.3% | 26.1% | 39.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-03 20:00 | SUN vs MUN | 33.8% | 24.8% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.