Gameweek 29
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-13 15:00 | BOU vs NEW | 39.1% | 23.5% | 37.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | AVL vs HUL | 60.6% | 21.2% | 18.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | CHE vs ARS | 26.9% | 24.1% | 48.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | COV vs MCI | 15.6% | 16.9% | 67.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | CRY vs FUL | 42.6% | 25.4% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | LEE vs BHA | 30.8% | 23.7% | 45.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | LIV vs IPS | 70.4% | 16.7% | 12.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | MUN vs EVE | 46.2% | 25.5% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | SUN vs BRE | 31.6% | 24.5% | 43.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-13 15:00 | TOT vs NFO | 48.4% | 24.8% | 26.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.