AVL vs HUL
Aston Villa (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 60.6% fair 1.65
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
HUL win 18.1% fair 5.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.3% / 20.8% / 15.9%.
Expected Goals
AVL
2.01
—
0.89
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 2-0 HUL | 11.1% | |
| AVL 1-0 HUL | 11.0% | |
| AVL 2-1 HUL | 9.9% | |
| AVL 1-1 HUL | 9.9% | |
| AVL 3-0 HUL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).