Gameweek 30
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-20 15:00 | ARS vs SUN | 74.8% | 15.8% | 9.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | BRE vs BOU | 46.3% | 23.2% | 30.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | BHA vs COV | 71.8% | 15.7% | 12.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | EVE vs TOT | 37.4% | 25.7% | 36.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | FUL vs LIV | 25.6% | 24.5% | 49.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | HUL vs CHE | 24.5% | 22.2% | 53.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | IPS vs CRY | 36.3% | 24.2% | 39.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | MCI vs MUN | 65.8% | 18.0% | 16.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | NEW vs LEE | 51.2% | 23.7% | 25.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 15:00 | NFO vs AVL | 34.8% | 26.4% | 38.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.