NEW vs LEE
Newcastle United (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 51.2% fair 1.95
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
LEE win 25.1% fair 3.99
Expected Goals
NEW
1.74
—
1.11
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 LEE | 11.2% | |
| NEW 1-0 LEE | 10.0% | |
| NEW 2-1 LEE | 9.7% | |
| NEW 2-0 LEE | 8.7% | |
| NEW 0-1 LEE | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).