EVE vs TOT
Everton (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 37.4% fair 2.67
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
TOT win 36.9% fair 2.71
Expected Goals
EVE
1.33
—
1.35
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 TOT | 12.3% | |
| EVE 0-1 TOT | 9.3% | |
| EVE 1-0 TOT | 9.1% | |
| EVE 1-2 TOT | 8.3% | |
| EVE 2-1 TOT | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).