Gameweek 31
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 14:00 | BOU vs MCI | 25.9% | 21.1% | 53.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | AVL vs BHA | 37.6% | 23.3% | 39.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | CHE vs FUL | 56.2% | 21.8% | 22.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | COV vs ARS | 13.5% | 17.8% | 68.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | CRY vs EVE | 43.0% | 26.2% | 30.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | LEE vs NFO | 42.9% | 27.3% | 29.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | LIV vs NEW | 55.1% | 22.5% | 22.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | MUN vs HUL | 55.7% | 22.7% | 21.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | SUN vs IPS | 44.4% | 24.5% | 31.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 14:00 | TOT vs BRE | 44.6% | 23.4% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.