CHE vs FUL
Chelsea (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 56.2% fair 1.78
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
FUL win 22.0% fair 4.54
Expected Goals
CHE
1.99
—
1.13
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 FUL | 9.9% | |
| CHE 2-1 FUL | 9.9% | |
| CHE 1-0 FUL | 8.8% | |
| CHE 2-0 FUL | 8.8% | |
| CHE 3-1 FUL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).