LIV vs NEW
Liverpool (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 55.1% fair 1.81
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
NEW win 22.4% fair 4.46
Expected Goals
LIV
1.89
—
1.09
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 NEW | 10.4% | |
| LIV 2-1 NEW | 9.9% | |
| LIV 1-0 NEW | 9.6% | |
| LIV 2-0 NEW | 9.0% | |
| LIV 3-1 NEW | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).