TOT vs BRE
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
BRE win 32.0% fair 3.13
Expected Goals
TOT
1.73
—
1.43
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 BRE | 10.5% | |
| TOT 2-1 BRE | 9.1% | |
| TOT 1-2 BRE | 7.5% | |
| TOT 1-0 BRE | 7.3% | |
| TOT 2-2 BRE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).