BOU vs MCI
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 25.9% fair 3.86
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
MCI win 53.0% fair 1.89
Expected Goals
BOU
1.34
—
2.12
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.8% | fair 3.05 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-2 MCI | 9.5% | |
| BOU 1-1 MCI | 8.9% | |
| BOU 0-2 MCI | 7.1% | |
| BOU 1-3 MCI | 6.7% | |
| BOU 0-1 MCI | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).