LEE vs NFO
Leeds United (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 27.3% fair 3.67
NFO win 29.8% fair 3.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.6% / 27.7% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.30
—
1.04
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | fair 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 NFO | 13.0% | |
| LEE 1-0 NFO | 12.5% | |
| LEE 0-1 NFO | 10.0% | |
| LEE 0-0 NFO | 9.6% | |
| LEE 2-1 NFO | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).