MUN vs HUL
Manchester United (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 55.7% fair 1.79
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
HUL win 21.5% fair 4.65
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.8% / 22.5% / 19.7%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.85
—
0.98
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-0 HUL | 10.9% | |
| MUN 1-1 HUL | 10.7% | |
| MUN 2-0 HUL | 10.1% | |
| MUN 2-1 HUL | 9.9% | |
| MUN 3-0 HUL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).