SUN vs IPS
Sunderland (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
IPS win 31.1% fair 3.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.3% / 24.6% / 31.1%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.58
—
1.29
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 IPS | 11.6% | |
| SUN 2-1 IPS | 9.1% | |
| SUN 1-0 IPS | 9.0% | |
| SUN 1-2 IPS | 7.4% | |
| SUN 0-1 IPS | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).