COV vs ARS
Coventry City (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 13.5% fair 7.39
Draw 17.8% fair 5.61
ARS win 68.6% fair 1.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 8.9% / 16.9% / 74.2%.
Expected Goals
COV
0.63
—
2.25
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 0-2 ARS | 14.2% | |
| COV 0-1 ARS | 12.6% | |
| COV 0-3 ARS | 10.6% | |
| COV 1-2 ARS | 9.0% | |
| COV 1-1 ARS | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 12.6 | 14.2 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 4.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).