CRY vs EVE
Crystal Palace (home) vs Everton · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 43.0% fair 2.33
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
EVE win 30.8% fair 3.25
Expected Goals
CRY
1.40
—
1.14
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 EVE | 12.6% | |
| CRY 1-0 EVE | 11.0% | |
| CRY 0-1 EVE | 9.0% | |
| CRY 2-1 EVE | 8.8% | |
| CRY 0-0 EVE | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).