Gameweek 32
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-17 14:00 | ARS vs AVL | 63.2% | 21.1% | 15.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | BRE vs LEE | 47.5% | 24.5% | 28.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | BHA vs CHE | 49.0% | 21.6% | 29.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | EVE vs BOU | 39.0% | 25.7% | 35.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | FUL vs SUN | 50.3% | 24.7% | 25.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | HUL vs COV | 45.6% | 25.6% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | IPS vs MUN | 33.8% | 23.7% | 42.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | MCI vs CRY | 68.9% | 17.0% | 14.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | NEW vs TOT | 48.4% | 22.9% | 28.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 14:00 | NFO vs LIV | 25.2% | 25.5% | 49.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.