MCI vs CRY
Manchester City (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 68.9% fair 1.45
Draw 17.0% fair 5.88
CRY win 14.1% fair 7.11
Expected Goals
MCI
2.55
—
0.99
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.5% | fair 3.18 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 CRY | 9.5% | |
| MCI 2-1 CRY | 9.3% | |
| MCI 3-0 CRY | 8.1% | |
| MCI 3-1 CRY | 7.9% | |
| MCI 1-0 CRY | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).