Gameweek 33
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-24 14:00 | BOU vs ARS | 20.9% | 22.5% | 56.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | AVL vs COV | 64.5% | 19.4% | 16.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | BRE vs FUL | 48.2% | 24.3% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | CHE vs MCI | 33.7% | 22.1% | 44.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | EVE vs BHA | 28.9% | 24.2% | 46.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | LEE vs LIV | 26.4% | 24.7% | 48.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | MUN vs CRY | 47.2% | 23.8% | 29.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | NEW vs IPS | 61.6% | 19.8% | 18.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | NFO vs SUN | 48.6% | 26.0% | 25.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 14:00 | TOT vs HUL | 58.5% | 21.6% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.