NEW vs IPS
Newcastle United (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 61.6% fair 1.62
Draw 19.8% fair 5.06
IPS win 18.6% fair 5.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.5% / 19.0% / 16.5%.
Expected Goals
NEW
2.26
—
1.06
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 2-1 IPS | 9.8% | |
| NEW 2-0 IPS | 9.2% | |
| NEW 1-1 IPS | 8.7% | |
| NEW 1-0 IPS | 8.2% | |
| NEW 3-1 IPS | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).