BOU vs ARS
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 20.9% fair 4.77
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
ARS win 56.5% fair 1.77
Expected Goals
BOU
0.94
—
1.86
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 0-1 ARS | 11.4% | |
| BOU 1-1 ARS | 10.6% | |
| BOU 0-2 ARS | 10.6% | |
| BOU 1-2 ARS | 9.9% | |
| BOU 0-3 ARS | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).