TOT vs HUL
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 58.5% fair 1.71
Draw 21.6% fair 4.64
HUL win 19.9% fair 5.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.1% / 21.1% / 17.8%.
Expected Goals
TOT
2.00
—
0.98
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 2-0 HUL | 10.2% | |
| TOT 1-0 HUL | 10.2% | |
| TOT 2-1 HUL | 10.0% | |
| TOT 1-1 HUL | 9.9% | |
| TOT 3-0 HUL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).