CHE vs MCI
Chelsea (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 33.7% fair 2.97
Draw 22.1% fair 4.52
MCI win 44.2% fair 2.26
Expected Goals
CHE
1.61
—
1.92
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.6% | fair 3.16 |
| Both teams to score | 68.2% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 MCI | 9.1% | |
| CHE 1-2 MCI | 8.7% | |
| CHE 2-1 MCI | 7.3% | |
| CHE 2-2 MCI | 7.0% | |
| CHE 0-1 MCI | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).