Gameweek 34
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-01 14:00 | ARS vs TOT | 66.3% | 19.4% | 14.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | BHA vs NFO | 58.6% | 21.7% | 19.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | COV vs MUN | 29.1% | 23.8% | 47.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | CRY vs AVL | 35.6% | 24.5% | 40.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | FUL vs EVE | 42.8% | 27.2% | 30.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | HUL vs BOU | 31.1% | 24.4% | 44.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | IPS vs LEE | 35.2% | 25.0% | 39.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | LIV vs CHE | 52.8% | 22.3% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | MCI vs BRE | 63.8% | 18.7% | 17.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 14:00 | SUN vs NEW | 28.5% | 23.8% | 47.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.