Gameweek 35
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 14:00 | BOU vs MUN | 45.2% | 23.3% | 31.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | BRE vs AVL | 41.2% | 24.2% | 34.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | BHA vs SUN | 67.1% | 17.9% | 15.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | EVE vs HUL | 50.2% | 25.9% | 23.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | FUL vs IPS | 51.9% | 23.5% | 24.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | LEE vs ARS | 19.8% | 23.8% | 56.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | MCI vs LIV | 47.3% | 23.4% | 29.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | NEW vs COV | 65.5% | 18.8% | 15.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | NFO vs CRY | 42.3% | 26.4% | 31.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 14:00 | TOT vs CHE | 38.1% | 22.8% | 39.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.