BOU vs MUN
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 23.3% fair 4.28
MUN win 31.4% fair 3.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.3% / 23.3% / 31.5%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.74
—
1.42
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 MUN | 10.5% | |
| BOU 2-1 MUN | 9.1% | |
| BOU 1-2 MUN | 7.4% | |
| BOU 1-0 MUN | 7.4% | |
| BOU 2-2 MUN | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).