NFO vs CRY
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 42.3% fair 2.37
Draw 26.4% fair 3.78
CRY win 31.3% fair 3.19
Expected Goals
NFO
1.37
—
1.15
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 CRY | 12.7% | |
| NFO 1-0 CRY | 11.1% | |
| NFO 0-1 CRY | 9.3% | |
| NFO 2-1 CRY | 8.7% | |
| NFO 0-0 CRY | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).