EVE vs HUL
Everton (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 50.2% fair 1.99
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
HUL win 23.8% fair 4.19
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.2% / 26.2% / 22.6%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.49
—
0.89
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | fair 2.19 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-0 HUL | 13.7% | |
| EVE 1-1 HUL | 12.3% | |
| EVE 2-0 HUL | 10.2% | |
| EVE 0-0 HUL | 9.2% | |
| EVE 2-1 HUL | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).