BHA vs SUN
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 67.1% fair 1.49
Draw 17.9% fair 5.59
SUN win 15.0% fair 6.66
Expected Goals
BHA
2.45
—
0.95
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.0% | fair 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-0 SUN | 10.0% | |
| BHA 2-1 SUN | 9.5% | |
| BHA 1-0 SUN | 8.2% | |
| BHA 3-0 SUN | 8.1% | |
| BHA 1-1 SUN | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).