Gameweek 36
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 14:00 | ARS vs NFO | 67.2% | 20.5% | 12.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | AVL vs NEW | 43.5% | 23.9% | 32.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | CHE vs EVE | 56.3% | 22.4% | 21.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | COV vs TOT | 27.3% | 22.9% | 49.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | CRY vs BHA | 29.5% | 22.6% | 47.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | HUL vs FUL | 33.2% | 26.5% | 40.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | IPS vs MCI | 18.3% | 18.0% | 63.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | LIV vs BRE | 58.6% | 21.5% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | MUN vs LEE | 45.2% | 24.9% | 29.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 14:00 | SUN vs BOU | 33.3% | 24.2% | 42.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.